Predicting the Future


Predicting the future, not just of individuals, and humanity but of cultures, nations,  is an ancient game. Once, this was done through speculation, astrology, interpretation of scriptures, etc. In the 19th and 20th centuries fiction writers began to express their ideas of the future  through reasonable extrapolations of current science and technology.
A number of writers have been doing this for centuries: not just  science-fiction that comes from science-informed imaginative writers –classic examples of which would be Francis Bacon’s New Atlantis (17th century) which is about a country where a science-centered institution (Solomon’s House) directed the goings-on in that Utopia. Those were the early days of science, like freshmen in college, scientists were dreaming of all the knowledge to be acquired in the years to come, to be turned to epistemic power and intellectual prestige.
In mid-seventeenth century there was a fiction on a future century. Of course we have all read Gulliver’s Travels which speaks of super-weapons. Voltaire wrote a story about aliens landing on earth. We call Jules Verne’s Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea and Journey to the Center of the Earth. In the twentieth century H. G. Wells wrote about the War of the Worlds and The Invisible Man. There are, of course hundreds of works of the genre we call science fiction.
Divining the future of science by scientists is of at least three kinds:
(a) Projection of what will happen to the world in the future: Current cosmology seems to suggest that in the distant future the galaxies would have receded so far away that they would no longer be detectable/visible from our galaxy (earth). Astronomers (should they exist) at that time, will have no idea of extra-Milky-Way galaxies, and their recession, and would be unable to come up with a Big Bang theory. Likewise in the very long future, practically all the stars would have died, and there would be utter darkness in the heavens, but there would be no humans on earth anyway.
(b) Eventual Fate of humanity: Some demographers say that after the human population peaks by the end of the century, it will begin to decline uncontrollably (as is already happening in Japan, Germany, and Ukraine), and will be eventually reduced to zero. On the other hand, Bryan Sykes argues in his Adam’s Curse that because of the declining sperm count and the gradual atrophy of the Y chromosome, a thousand centuries from not there will not be any human males on the planet.
(c) Possible impacts of science-based technology in the centuries to come: The negative side-effects of genetic engineering, the internet (invasion of privacy), cyber-wars, robots taking over, etc. Also, while our longevity might increase, our knowledge of what will happen to our individual bodies (which diseases when and how intense) may have negative effects on our psychological well-being. Knowing that one will have cancer or a stroke two and a half years from now may diminish one’s enthusiasm for going to the movies and attending a party. A war between nuclear-armed nations should also be listed among the dire possibilities.
There are optimistic transhumanist-futurists like Ray Kurtzweil, but as of now – imminent diminution in water and energy sources, the melting of the polar ice-caps leading to catastrophic rise in sea-levels, and the (possible) irreversibility of climate change sound more threatening than honor killings in Pakistan and the stoning of a woman for apostasy in the Sudan. Perhaps these latter evils are the kinds of plagues need to be eradicated, but we don’t know how to do that because they have nothing to do with science and much to do with ignorance and distorted religious views. While we can do little about sudden movements of tectonic plates and draughts and tornados, we can do a lot more to alleviate hunger, enhance basic health for millions, eliminate illiteracy, and decimate religious bigotry, superstitions, cultural prejudices, and such other factors that still poison human culture. Perhaps practical science and theoretical scientific knowledge can assist humanity in this regard.
Michio Kaku’s Physics of the Future presents visions of what is to come in fields ranging from computers and medicines to space travel and wealth. The book is based on serious study and interviews with pioneers in science and technology. It tells us about driverless cars, photographing dreams, resurrecting extinct life-forms, hot fusion, robots becoming conscious, reversing aging, and much more. It talks about a planetary civilization. At the end there is a fictional chapter on a day in a human life in 2100 and concludes with an insightful quote from Mahatma Gandhi which traces the roots of violence to
Wealth without work,
Pleasure without conscience,
Knowledge without character,
Commerce without morality,
Science without humanity,
Worship without sacrifice,
Politics without principles.

Reflections on the Bhagavad Gita


In a new series I am reflecting on the shlokas of the Bhagavad Gita from non-traditional and cross-cultural perspectives.

My intention is to articulate some of the ideas that they provoke in me. I am not approaching the Gita as a religious devotee, but as another of its billions of readers.
There have been many parallel thought currents in the world. What I find interesting is that that many thinkers beyond the Sanskrit tradition have expressed in distant lands similar, if not identical ideas.

Furthermore, many insights in the Gita – a work that was composed many centuries ago – continue to be relevant and meaningful in this day and age; and This inclines me to recognize such writings as multiple expressions of the sublime human spirit. It induces me to embrace human culture as a bouquet rather than as mutually inimical forces.
Many revered sages, religious leaders, and competent scholars have commented on this immortal masterpiece.

My reflections are as thinking human being and an inheritor of the Hindu tradition. I am exercising these privileges in my reflections.

I regard the Gita as a great philosophical, cultural, and insightful work of significance. I am well aware that this goes counter to orthodoxy, but I know that I am not alone in this. There are a great many people who shy away from the Gita precisely because many traditional commentaries do not resonate with them. These reflections are addressed primarily to those who respect the cultural and literary treasures of the tradition without subscribing to every aspect of ancient worldviews.
I invite you to go to:

http://acharyavidyasagar.wordpress.com/reflections-on-the-gita-cross-cultural-and-non-traditional/

 

On Non-logical Thinking


When the human brain was wired to logical thinking, it was also wired to the faculty of non-logical and illogical thought.
Logic serves to reason out the present and even the future.
However, given the randomness in the course of events (due to unexpected intrusions of unpredictable causes arising from complex interconnections in the causal web), it was evolutionarily helpful to develop non-logical thinking.
Non-logical thinking is at the root of many very useful and enriching elements in human life:
(a) Hope: Without non-logical thinking hopes that sustain us in difficult and apparently hopeless situations would be impossible.
(b) Creativity: A good many expressions of artistic creativity arise from non-logical thinking. Consider the works of painters like Chagall and Klee, for example; or the musical outpourings of great composers.
(c) Imagination: is at the root of poetry, epic compositions, novels, and more. They don’t arise from logical thinking alone.
(d) Capacity for seeing through inadvertent mistakes: The computer is a 100% logical devise. If one makes a single letter-error in typing an e-mail address it will not work. But if one makes a spelling mistake in the name of an addressee on the envelop of a letter the postman will still deliver the letter. There are typos in our exchanges, but we understand what the writer mean. This is because our brains can stray away from logic at the appropriate time. As in the sentence: There is great wisdon in what I am writing hear.
It is good to remember that for practically thirty percent of our lives (during our sleep state) the logic button is switched off in our brains. We witness the most fantastic and illogical episodes in our dreams without the slightest feeling of mental discomfort.

Predicting the Future


Predicting the future, not just of individuals, but of cultures, nations, and humanity is an ancient game. Once, this was done through speculation, astrology, interpretation of scriptures, etc. In the 19th and 20th centuries fiction writers began to express their ideas of the future through reasonable extrapolations of current science and technology.
A number of writers have been doing this for centuries: not just the science-fiction that comes from science-informed imaginative writers – the classic examples of which would be Francis Bacon’s New Atlantis (17th century) which is about a country where a science-centered institution (Solomon’s House) directed the goings-on in that Utopia. Those were the early days of science, like freshmen in college, scientists were dreaming of all the knowledge to be acquired in the years to come, to be turned to epistemic power and intellectual prestige.
In mid-seventeenth century there was a fiction on a future century. (I forget the name of the author). Of course we have all read Gulliver’s Travels which speaks of super-weapons. Voltaire wrote a story about aliens landing on earth. We call Jules Verne’s Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea and Journey to the Center of the Earth. In the twentieth century H. G. Wells’ wrote about the War of the Worlds and the Invisible Man. There are, of course hundreds of works of the genre we call science fiction.
Divining the future of science by scientists is of at least three kinds:
(a) Projection of what will happen to the world in the future: Current cosmology seems to suggest that in the distant future the galaxies would have receded so far away that they would no longer be detectable/visible from our galaxy (earth). Astronomers (should they exist) at that time, will have no idea of extra-Milky-Way galaxies, and their recession, and would be unable to come up with a Big Bang theory. Likewise in the very long future, practically all the stars would have died, and there would be utter darkness in the heavens, but there would be no humans on earth anyway.
(b) Eventual Fate of humanity: Some demographers say that after the human population peaks by the end of the century, it will begin to decline uncontrollably (as is already happening in Japan, Germany, and Ukraine), and will be eventually reduced to zero. On the other hand, Bryan Sykes argues in his “Adam’s Curse” that because of the declining sperm count and the gradual atrophy of the Y chromosome, a thousand centuries from not there will not be any human males on the planet.
(c) Possible impacts of science-based technology in the centuries to come: The negative side-effects of genetic engineering, the internet (invasion of privacy), cyber-wars, robots taking over, etc. Also, while our longevity might increase, our knowledge of what will happen to our individual bodies (which diseases when and how intense) may have negative effects on our psychological well-being. Knowing that one will have cancer or a stroke two and a half years from now may diminish one’s enthusiasm for going to the movies and attending a party. A war between nuclear-armed nations should also be listed among the dire possibilities.
There are optimistic transhumanist-futurists like Ray Kurtzweil, but as of now – imminent diminution in water and energy sources, the melting of the polar ice-caps leading to catastrophic rise in sea-levels, and the (possible) irreversibility of climate change sound more threatening than honor killings in Pakistan and the stoning of a woman for apostasy in the Sudan. Perhaps these latter evils are the kinds of plagues need to be eradicated, but we don’t know how to do that because they have nothing to do with science and much to do with ignorance and distorted religious views. While we can do little about sudden movements of tectonic plates and draughts and tornadoes, we can do a lot more to alleviate hunger, enhance basic health for millions, eliminate illiteracy, and decimate religious bigotry, superstitions, cultural prejudices, and such other factors that still poison human culture. Perhaps practical science and theoretical scientific knowledge can assist humanity in this regard.
Michio Kaku’s Physics of the Future presents visions of what is to come in fields ranging from computers and medicines to space travel and wealth. The book is based on serious study and interviews with pioneers in science and technology. It tells us about driverless cars, photographing dreams, resurrecting extinct life-forms, hot fusion, robots becoming conscious, reversing aging, and much more. It talks about a planetary civilization. At the end there is a fictional chapter on a day in a human life in 2100 and concludes with an insightful quote from Mahatma Gandhi which traces the roots of violence to
Wealth without work,
Pleasure without conscience,
Knowledge without character,
Commerce without morality,
Science without humanity,
Worship without sacrifice,
Politics without principles.

Four Levels of Physics


1. Ancient physics (Pre-16th century): Based largely on geometry, four/five element theory of matter, metaphysics, and ancient world views; careful reasoning; interesting and impressive. Some representatives: Ptolemy, Aristotle, Aryabhata, and Al Kindi.

2. Classical physics: end of 16th – end of 19th century. Based on ingenious instruments, calculus and differential equations, probability theory, hypothetic-deductive method, and empirical philosophy. Abundant results: enormous and significant breakthroughs in human knowledge on the directly experienced and astronomical worlds; predictability of phenomena with mathematical/statistical precision; recognition of gravitation and electromagnetism as the two fundamental forces in the physical world, recognition of many laws of nature.

3. Modern physics: Beginning of 20th century – now. Revelation of the substratum of matter and energy; insights into an altogether different level of (not directly experienced) Reality – the microcosm, fundamental particles -; discovery of galaxies and expanding universe: formulation of science-based cosmology (big bang, inflation, etc.); insights into the nature of space-time; sophistical mathematics, and high-precision instruments.

4. PoMo Physics (Post-modern physics): Early 20th to present) is a branching of modern physics. Based on bold speculative excursions into the philosophical, metaphysical, and religious implications of modern physics; toying with the state of the universe trillions of years hence; scant empirical evidence; sometimes inspired by popularizations (non-mathematical treatments) of physics; imaginative science-based constructs (e.g. parallel universes); a free-for-all realm of theorizing with little or no mathematical aspect; fascinating now and again to curious inquirers into science, but rather annoying to some technical physicists; producing hardly any result of empirical significance or practical value, tortuous tying of physics with consciousness, freewill, etc.; in some respects like medieval scholasticism, though based here and there on abstract mathematics.
June 1, 2014